Goldman Sachs Predicts How Quick Coronavirus Vaccines Will Be Adopted Worldwide
A health worker injects a person during clinical trials for a Covid-19 vaccine at the Research Centers of America in Hollywood, Florida.
Eva Marie Uzcategui | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Investment bank Goldman Sachs has forecast that by fall 2021, more than 70% of people in developed countries will be vaccinated against the coronavirus.
In a note released last week, Goldman economists Daan Struyven and Sid Bhushan laid out a vaccination schedule using a combination of supply estimates (using data from leading vaccine developers Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca, Novavax and Johnson & Johnson) and the Demand fixed. using data from consumer surveys.
They said they expected the first doses of coronavirus vaccines to go to high-risk groups in the US from mid-December.
Approval and launch of vaccines would deliver “significant public health benefits,” added the economists, from the first quarter of next year, with half of the US and Canada’s populations expected to be vaccinated in April.
Goldman expects the US Food and Drug Administration to approve Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines in the coming weeks. The FDA Advisory Committee meeting will be on December 10th and possibly December 17th.
Moderna said Monday that it will ask the FDA for emergency clearance later in the day after new data confirmed that its vaccine was more than 94.1% effective in preventing the coronavirus and was safe.
In the US, Operation Warp Speed’s advisor, Dr. Moncef Slaoui, told CNBC earlier this month that the government was ready to begin immunizing individuals within 24 hours of the FDA receiving emergency approvals for the vaccines. He also said the US will be handing out 35 to 40 million doses of a vaccine in December.
On Friday, Dr. Slaoui informed CNBC that Americans could expect a “substantial normalization” by summer 2021.
Europe and elsewhere
Turning to Europe, Goldman said the European Medicines Agency is expected to approve the leading vaccines by the end of the year, based on comments from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
Economists expected Britain to vaccinate half of its population in March. Meanwhile, they forecast the European Union, Japan and Australia would reach this level of immunization in May.
In their projections, Struyven and Bhashan assume that vaccine production will slowly increase early next year and that the developers will achieve their production goals. Economists also used sales contracts from different countries to forecast supply and responses to surveys such as the Ipsos global survey to assess demand.
In all developed markets, they expected children under the age of 12 to be vaccinated from October 2021 after vaccine production became “plentiful” in the middle of the second quarter.
However, Struyven and Bhashan also put forward a downside scenario where both AstraZeneca’s and Johnson & Johnson’s vaccines fail and the demand for vaccinations weakens.
Unlike the other front-runners from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, the candidates from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson are “viral vector” vaccines, which use a weakened version of a virus.
In addition to the vaccines from the US drug manufacturers Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, the British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca has also published promising interim results from its Covid-19 vaccine trials. However, on Friday, Oxford University and World Health Organization scientists said that after some concerns from US experts, more data from AstraZeneca’s vaccine studies would be needed to determine safety and effectiveness.
The economists’ scenario also took into account unexpectedly low demand for vaccines.
“This scenario shows slower vaccinations in Europe that are more reliant on these developers (AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson), but also less medium-term vaccinations elsewhere due to weaker demand that appears most fragile in the US and Japan,” they wrote.
Australia and Canada would be most resilient to this scenario, said Struyven and Bhashan, as they have a greater variety of vaccine supply contracts and, according to survey data, have greater demand for immediate immunization.
However, Goldman’s baseline forecast is that widespread immunization against the coronavirus would “accelerate global growth” by the second quarter of next year.
– CNBC’s Noah Higgins-Dunn contributed to this article.